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Where Will Everyone Go? Global Migration Trends Shaping Our Future

  • Writer: horizonshiftlab
    horizonshiftlab
  • Apr 3
  • 14 min read
Travelers with backpacks walk in an airport under a sign reading "A1-A3." The scene is busy and monochromatic, with a modern interior.
Source: Aibek Skakov via pexels.com

In this episode, we explore global migration trends—what’s driving people to move, where they’re heading, and how climate change, geopolitics, and shifting demographics are rewriting the rules. We dig into emerging talent hubs like Indonesia, the rise of mobility as a hedge for Americans, and the paradox of migration into climate-vulnerable regions. We also touch on animal migration and interspecies impacts, reminding us that movement isn’t just a human story. What does it mean to move, stay, or belong in a future defined by change? We consider the signals shaping what’s next—and the possibilities that movement might open up.




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Episode Transcript:

Raakhee: Welcome to Signal Shift, by Horizon Shift Lab. We're your hosts, Lana Price, Raakhee Natha, and Sue Chi. Each episode, we explore the latest signals in technology, culture, and society, uncovering insights that will impact our daily lives in the future. Join us as we shift perspectives, explore possibilities, and delve into real changes in our world. Curious to learn more? Go to horizonshiftlab.com.


Raakhee: Hello and welcome to Signal Shift. I'm Raakhee and I have Lana here with me as well. Today we are talking about migration. Everyone seems to be going somewhere, right? And the rules aren't so clear anymore. For some, you know, the USA has always been an escape, the place to go to. You know, that looms in question over the next few years.


But there's interesting places like hubs like Singapore and Dubai and even Switzerland, which still holds its prominence within Europe. There's unique places like India, right, who have obviously interesting and a big future. But what does it look like? Are people going to move to India? Are masses of talented Indians going to go back home? And then there's Africa, where the majority of the youth will be in the future.


And then we have North America, we have Europe, and we have parts of Asia that are facing really fast population declines. The world population is actually going to hit what is called “peak humanity,” or some experts or analysts call it “peak humanity.” It's going to hit about 10 billion and then we're going to see a steep decline. And this is particularly going to happen in rich countries with shrinking populations. So you're going to see these high and middle income countries with the number of working age people, which is typically classified as 20 to 64 year olds, is going to shrink by about 200 million in these high and middle income countries by 2040. But globally, there's an increase in the workforce or the working age population, rather to about 700 million, which is fascinating. 


But those people are gonna be in Africa, in South America and Asia. So there's some interesting trends here, right? We know this, there's rising international mobility and migration with every given year. We see record numbers of people who are classified as migrants. And there's key drivers around this. It's labor shortages, it's geopolitical conflict and it's climate change. 


This is a big one, Lana. It's a big topic. I am not certain where our signals are going to take us today or how small or how big we can play in this space. But I think let's do that. Let's just play with our signals and see what we discover or learn today.


Lana: Yeah, sure. Yeah, so I'll pick up something that we've talked about before. This is about, this is a signal from the Atlantic, which, and it's a recent article they just published called “Americans are Buying an Escape Plan.” So this article talks about the mobility industry. It profiles a few different global consulting groups that help primarily wealthy individuals, right? Obtain second citizenship and or residency permits. And, you know, in the past, these firms really primarily served people from Russia, China, India, and the Middle East. 


But the signal is that now its primary client base are US citizens. And so even 15 years ago, these consulting groups had so few American clients that they didn't even bother to open a US office. But now this one that they talked about just opened its 10th office in the US because it's now the number one source market, surpassing all other countries combined. 


And so, you know, I think a couple of interesting things to note is that one. You know, the folks who are doing this, they're not necessarily moving, they're hedging, right? So they are trying to create options for themselves just in case. And thinking about this, just like they think about their portfolios, that this is an asset that they're buying, mobility asset. 


The second interesting thing is that, you know, I think we know that there are different ways that you can buy your citizenship, but you can also qualify via ancestry. And so one of these groups had found that up to 40% of US citizens could qualify for EU passports by heritage, but including Latino Americans, Filipinos, Sephardic Jews, right? Like there's a very broad, actually, scope of people who could qualify. And so I thought, I thought that was very interesting, 


But you know, like we've, we have discussed this before. This opens up a lot of questions about, you know, this type of privilege and who can benefit from it. And obviously who doesn't have access to, these types of options. But I think this trend of who's interested, and this shift that we've seen that they couldn't imagine 15 years ago, is an interesting one to point out.


Raakhee: And I think, you know, your point is absolutely valid on hedging. It's not about tomorrow or five years. It's 10 years and 15 years. And yeah, something interesting going on there with these migration patterns. And I think that leads into what I had as the signal. I definitely, I think this was such a big topic. I struggled with what's a signal.


Lana: For sure.


Raakhee: And yeah, I think I'll share some insights I picked up from a particular author and think just interesting things to note around this and then kind of a sort of signal in this space. But I will say that this is more just some more insights on migration and I think an important point to make around this. 


So he's an expert in this area. His name is Parag Khanna. And he is the CEO of AlphaGeo. And they are a geospatial predictive analytics platform. So he writes for the World Economic Forum. And he's on TED and Dubai Futures Forum, et cetera, those sorts of things. So he's the author of a book called Move, where people are going for a better future, all those things. So really somebody you want to look at.


On his website, there's tons of maps around all of this stuff. And it's very interesting to look at that, right? But there's a critical paradox we're facing, and I'm going to go to that now, that he talks about. Going back to numbers again, the estimates are that we're going to see between 500 million to 1 billion people who are going to be permanently uprooted in the next couple of decades, right? And we've seen migration patterns throughout history. 


But what's really interesting is that like I mentioned upfront, the move has always been to the United States and to Europe, people coming from China and Africa and Asia and even Canada coming into the United States or Europe. And, you know, but with climate change now added to the kind of mix, a lot of the parts of the United States and very popular parts of Europe, India, parts of Southeast Asia and East Asia may not be habitable as early as 2070.


I know these things are hard to believe or comprehend, but that's what some of these initial forecasts kind of show. Russia, parts of China and Canada look much more promising from a climate change perspective. And that's just what the data shows. And you can see this very clearly on these maps and he talks about them a lot as well. 


Interestingly, we spoke about the mass of the working population or working age population where they'll be, but by 2050, 60% of working age adults will hold a high school degree. But 80% of them will be in Africa and Asia and South and Central America, and only 20% will be in Europe and North America. 


So the talent is just not going to sit in those continents because of population decline and technology and other things allowing, really, education to catch up in these other parts of the world. So you're going to have talent pools that are going to be new countries. You've got climate change and the flow of people is going to completely change. 


But the paradox is again that right now we still have these migration patterns into Europe and the United States and we're all moving to the places that are probably going to be at high risk, you know, at the highest risk from climate, right? 


So we have this paradox and it's going to be really interesting to see how this plays out in the future. One of the big things is, you know, where will young people go? Where will they want to move to? So you have all this talent in these other continents, but, you know, where will they want to move to? 


And what you see already happening with a lot of countries is what they call the war for young talent. And what do they want, right? If we look at Gen Z, for example, they don't own homes. They're driven by values and they believe in belonging to many places and moving and they want mobility. They often don't have kids. Again, they are extremely mobile and they tend to have it as a preference. So what do they want? They want affordable housing. They want to have continued mobility. They don't want to come somewhere and be stuck there and have no other options.


They see it as a human right, in fact. And they want to see climate initiatives, like what is this country doing to ensure that it's still habitable in 10 years from now? But they also want cultural links and ties to go somewhere and feel like, I can belong no matter where else I come from. And that in itself is becoming challenging. 


There is something called the Global Talent Competitiveness Index, and it categorizes countries as either Talent Champions, Movers, Limpers, or Laggards. 


Champions are typically your high income countries, like the US and parts of Europe. And then Movers can be countries who are doing interesting things to kind of continue to increase themselves towards becoming Champions. And some interesting countries can sit there. And I think that's where the heart of my signal was today. So Switzerland typically tops this list, we know for all the obvious reasons, right? 


But in the 2023 index, China and Russia moved from being talent Movers into the talent Champions category, right? So they are attracting talent. And Indonesia has remained a talent Mover, but has made the biggest improvements in their competitiveness over the past 10 years. So they're doing really good overall as a country. And so my signal was really around places like Indonesia, which we typically don't talk about, right? We talk about other bigger countries. 


But in terms of GDP, they actually ranked eighth in the world, right? They surpassed France and the UK. So, you know, it's a really interesting country to look at. Their population is dominated by Gen Z, so they have a massive talent pool. They are very adaptive to digital transformation innovation. So they do very good on that front. And they also have a lot of cost effective production capabilities. 


So they could become the next production hub for things like AI content and form and gaming and those sorts of things, right? So it could be a destination for international creative projects. I think that was the signal I'll kind of put out there is look at some of these interesting outlier countries. I will say this, they are still at risk from a climate perspective. So that is the other part that we have to account for here, which makes all of these migration patterns challenging.


But yeah, I just thought we really have to start looking in different places and countries as to where will people go and move and what's attractive about being there.


Lana: Yeah, think you're really, I mean, what I hear you saying is weaving together sort of population growth, climate change, political environment, and, you know, how, how countries are really thinking about this, proactively or not, right? And so I think that's really interesting. I did actually read that book also but it was a while ago. 


But yeah, I appreciate sort of looking at this with all of those different lenses. Yeah, I I think from what I saw an article, I think in Bloomberg that said, I mean, most people who move don't move very far. You know what I mean? Like it's very regional for the most part. And I think that makes a lot of sense.


And so some of these things that we’re, I mean, that's why this is gonna be so difficult. Some of the things that we're suggesting, especially when it comes to climate change, like it's gonna affect bigger areas and require bigger moves than folks might like want to do.


Yeah, I think my other signal that I found, I agree with you, it's a little challenging. Like it's a broad topic. 


But one thing that I found went back to animals and just thinking about how migration isn't just for humans, right? Especially when we think about climate change. And so this was about the migration of red ants and red ants that are becoming a really serious problem like in Australia and they're in this particular area of Australia, I think it's Queensland. These, the red ants are really, I mean, they cause like serious harm to humans. They're invasive red fire ants, originally from South America. 


And what's interesting is that this area that has really been through a lot of flooding, the ants will get together and form a raft and they ride on the floodwaters so that they can go through new regions. And they attack animals, they cause tragic livestock and pet fatalities. And also, like 23 people have been hospitalized since like, in this month from red ant bites. And so, you know, this is just to say like, extreme weather events, right, impact our entire environment and ecosystem. And you know, species migration is also something to think about and just kind of be aware of.


Raakhee: I love that, Lana, and I'm so glad you brought that up. I briefly had thought about it in my head, like, oh, animals. And I think exactly to your point, we're so impacted, right? And I think about the previous episode and how you spoke about that statistic is still kind of with me, right? About like, what is it again? Like 57%, we're gonna share 57% of the land. Yeah, right.


So we highly impacted exactly to your point on the migration of different types of creatures and what we do. And I think about our forest episode that we spoke about and those different types of, I can't remember if was a fungus or what it was that was destroying the trees in those areas. 


Lana: That's right, yeah.


Raakhee: And new patterns like that, which totally impact where we live and how we live. And so I think that's a really important. I want to actually kind of look at what's happening with animals in different regions and what are the risks and where are they going to go? And I think it impacts, mean, okay, these red ants sound really scary. I was like, they’re forming rafts, they


Lana: Wild, it's really, I mean you, I would be terrified. It would be terrifying to see something like that.


Raakhee:  Yeah, I mean, I don't think I'm in love with ants to start with and red ants. And this sounds particularly creepy. Like, OK, well, I'm sure there's a horror movie in the writing somewhere. 


But yeah, I lost my train of thought because I'm worrying about red ants. 


Yeah, I think just interesting of how we can be impacted by other species and this interspecies cooperation that we're going to need within all this migration.


And that's why I it is very hard to say, what's it going to look like, right? We can see some patterns in that, but really who can sit decisively and be like, that's the place to move to. We just don't know enough, know, and what we know keeps shifting.


Raakhee: Yeah, you are someone who, if I may share, you've stayed in so many places in the world and it's pretty amazing, right? And so you have this, like, what a range of, like, experiences and that sort of thing. I guess a personal question, but, what do you think about all of this? I'd love to know, your thoughts on this.


Lana: Yeah, I've reflected on this a little bi,t too. You know, I think, I grew up in a military environment. And so that was, it's very much the norm, right? And so people are moving for their careers. And it's, you know, every two or three years. And I think there are certain, lots of different fields where it's like that, you have to go where the opportunities are. 


And you know, in that case and in many other cases, either you're going to the opportunity or like your employer is relocating you, right? Like all to these different places. And so I think that's an interesting thing to think about, especially now with remote work.


Like how important is it for people to live, where they will work and who's going to pay for all of this relocation? And so like that's something that I was thinking about.


Yeah, I think this is something that I think about a lot and the, especially, with regard to climate change and with regard to like where will opportunities be -- and then I don't have a good don't have a very good answer. But yeah but what about you how how how is this topic really like resonated for you?


Raakhee: Yeah, I think it's such a fair statement, you know, that it's so hard to call it. Right. It's not as easy as it was for people 30 or 40 years ago to be like, that's where it's really promising and have this kind of stability. I think I really taken on a very nomad kind of hat. And I think being one, being away from family to start with, like. You've already learned how to traverse that. It's not the easiest. There's pros and cons.


And then I think just, you know, I speak about this often, but I just I'm letting go to lot of attachments and identity based on any kinds of attachments, right? Just because of the world we're living in and a lot of personal things have happened to me as well, right? It's just, yeah, it's I don't know. Yeah, so ver,y I am open to any way, Lana, a way I can just have a good quality of lifestyle and peace.


I don't know, I'm just, yeah, just a very nomadic, non-attached, like, go where you can have a good life. And I hope that there's many options and it's easy for all of us and all people of the planet to be able to access that, right? In the simplest ways.


Lana: I think that's a universal response. I feel like that's what everyone wants. I think that's what people are looking for.


Raakhee: Yeah, yeah. And I think a really good episode to listen to would be we did the one on multiple passports. If you're listening to today's episode, definitely listen to that one, because I think there's some really interesting things that come up between these. So I'm seeing lots of connection points with so many things we've spoken to before.


I hope, yeah, I hope you are thinking about these things at least. Yeah, think movement, yeah, it's going to be a theme in the next few decades, right? We can't predict the directions, but I think just that concept. So thank you so much for listening and being with us.


And make sure to subscribe and like on YouTube. We are getting pretty good, consistent views of this. We really appreciate the support. So please do continue and we will catch you again next week. Bye for now.


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