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Drinking Less, Changing More: How the Decline of Alcohol Consumption Could Reshape Society

Updated: Mar 14

Hands holding drinks in a toast over a geometric patterned floor. The mood is celebratory with diverse drinks in ornate glasses.
Source: Lauren Bowes via spiritsbusiness.com

In this episode we explore how the decline of alcohol consumption is reshaping nightlife, wellness, and social behavior. We discuss the rise of alternatives—such as cannabis-infused beverages and functional drinks marketed for mood enhancement—along with the growing interest in sober curiosity. But not all alcohol is disappearing. Demand for natural wines is surging, as younger drinkers seek products with fewer additives and perceived health benefits. Meanwhile, cities are adapting, appointing Night Mayors to manage nightlife economies and supporting new forms of social spaces, including non-alcoholic bars. What does a world with less drinking mean—not just for nightlife, but for public safety, social connection, and even the future of intoxication itself?





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Episode Transcript:

Raakhee: Welcome to Signal Shift, by Horizon Shift Lab. We're your hosts, Lana Price, Raakhee Natha, and Sue Chi. Each episode, we explore the latest signals in technology, culture, and society, uncovering insights that will impact our daily lives in the future. Join us as we shift perspectives, explore possibilities, and delve into real changes in our world. Curious to learn more? Go to horizonshiftlab.com.


[0:40 Dry January and Changing Consumption]


Raakhee: Hello and welcome to Signal Shift. I'm Raakhee, and I have Lana and Sue with me. And today, inspired by Dry January, which is pretty much over now or ending, which I'm sure many are grateful for. But we are talking about alcohol consumption. 


Now Dry January is a month where people abstain from alcohol, seeing it as, you know, sort of a personal challenge to take on. It was started as a campaign by the UK charity called Alcohol Change UK. And historically, we've always heard that some types of alcohol are actually good for certain aspects of our health. But more recent studies claim no amount of alcohol is safe to consume. I think it's fair to say that when it comes to alcohol, the messages are very confusing right now.


Alcohol can be traced back to 3000 BC. And, you know, quite frankly, earlier in history, there's really just no record of when exactly it started. It's been a ubiquitous part of our cultures and our world for centuries. But are the tides shifting or not? And how are we changing our drinking habits? 


Americans seem to have earned a reputation for drinking more water than any other country or region, Europe being one of those regions. And compared with the European Union, for example, US adults are drinking an average of about 57.5 ounces of water per day, while British adults are drinking about 33 ounces per day. 


And, you know, there's a trope somewhere in there of an American with a massive water bottle. I think that comes to mind for all of us. So, Sue, Lana, you know, what are your signals this week? And I'm curious, is Dry January a thing in your world?


[2:33 The Rise of Alcohol Alternatives]


Lana: I'd love to start. I've seen and I'm curious whether this aligns with what both of you found, but just an overall decline in terms of the alcohol industry's sales. 


And there's a couple of things that people are pointing to. One is the consumer health concerns, like you were saying, Raakhee. The other is the use of GLP-1 drugs, like Ozempic, for example, that Ozempic not only suppresses kind of your appetite, but it also suppresses wanting to drink, that feeling of wanting to drink, too. And so they've tied those things together, a change in behavior and not just for food, but for alcohol as well. And then there's something around kind of the younger generation that they don't want to, they're consuming less alcohol than the older generations before them.


And so one, the signal that I found kind of in that context is the growth of these new types of drinks that are kind of like mood-enhancing drinks. And so the one that I wanted to talk about is called Brez, B-R-E-Z. And it's microdose cannabis and mushrooms in a can. 


And so this is very low levels of THC and CBD that it's actually derived from hemp. And so it's federally legal, but it also has, not psychedelic mushrooms, but it has Lion's Mane. And so Lion's Mane is a mushroom that has, you can find it at the farmer's market, but it's more medicinal, right, it’s gained a lot of popularity because it has a potential cognitive and neurological benefits.


You know, to me, I think we're seeing a lot of the stuff that we've talked about before in this signal, which is like, okay: a growing acceptance of microdosing, right, because they even say up front it's microdose in a can. So something that this has become so mainstream, you can do it in like an everyday context. 


It's packaged in this very familiar format, which is the canned beverage, but it's really like bridging recreational and wellness, like the rise of “functional intoxication.” So it's substances that are both, you know, it's the effect that it gives you, but it's they're saying like, oh, this also gives you a benefit. And so it's, it's really related to that like optimization mindset. It's a convergence of like supplement plus, like, recreational substances. 


And I was really struck by like the language and the marketing of this drink, right. So they say, you know, they're like, people like the reviews are like, oh, this integrates into my lifestyle, right. And so they're using a lot of language around wellness and mindfulness and enjoyment. 


And so it's really kind of this shift from alcohol that, you know, like you said, like we now studies say it's like, you know, totally not good for you. We know that it leads to cancer, right. So it's kind of the shift from a vice, really to more of this like personalized mood drink that can actually be good for you.


So that's my signal. And yes, I'm curious, you know, what, how that aligns with what you both found.


Raakhee: I love that. I love that, Lana. And yeah, I don't drink alcohol for health reasons, right. So yeah, I love it. I could have that. And, you know, I have coffee drinks and similar with, you know, those sorts of ingredients with the lion's mane or the reishi mushroom. So knowing that, okay, this takes it even a step further. And yeah, that sounds really, really cool. So I actually want to try that product out. 


So I think that's so smart, right. I think all products are moving in that sort of -- we want to remove the bad and we want to enhance the good. So that tracks, it tracks. And Sue, what did, yeah, what was, what was your signal?


[6:58 Wine Industry Crisis and Rise of Natural Wines]


Sue: Yeah, it's definitely along the lines of health and wellness. Lana, I don't know if I've seen Brez in the grocery store, but there's definitely a section of beverages in the health and wellness section that are so beautifully packaged. But I have no idea what's in them. And then, yeah, the marketing is just like, you're gonna feel great after you drink this. But yeah, I wonder if in the future, those kind of beverages will also just be integrated in the grocery store with like the wine and spirit section, for example.


So speaking of wine and spirits, I wanted to talk a little bit about what is happening with wine, because I think similar, Lana, to what you were saying, you know, wine sales are just down so much. 


That said, I think last year, wine sales went to an all-time low since 1996, which is a little bit crazy. People are talking about like a wine industry crisis, all of these things. China consumption is down 60% over the last 50 years. And even in France, I love this quote someone gave, it was basically like, your grandfather drank 300 liters of wine, then your father drank 180 liters, and now the son today would be drinking just 30 liters.


So it's been this global trend, if you think of this history over many more decades. So I was thinking, Raakhee, like, is the future of wine dry? You know, will this lead to non-alcoholic sales and things like that? But I was actually thinking along the lines of wellness. 


The one bright spot I found in the wine industry was around what they're calling natural wine. You can define it in a bunch of ways, but it's like no added chemicals, no pesticides, things like that.


According to several news articles I saw in the New York Times and Decanter Magazine, they're saying that organic wines or natural wines have really been booming. And even in the last year, there's a national retailer named Majestic, they said natural wine sales doubled in the past year amidst all of this other decline. And young people are attracted to natural wine. 


So I was thinking, yeah, maybe along this idea of health and wellness, because there's minimal intervention after production. You know, you're getting kind of the benefits of the soil, of the environment. And a lot of these producers employ more environmentally friendly practices. They're more sustainable, they do regenerative agriculture, things like that.


So Lana, to your point as well, it's like, oh, there might be a health benefit here. I don't actually know that there's any study that says that this is true, but I think that that's the feeling. Like, if you're going to drink wine, this is more true to the earth, you know, more climate-friendly, all of these things that I think people are enjoying. 


And I would hope the taste is also getting better. I've definitely tried natural wines in the past, and it's so hit or miss. So maybe they're also getting a little bit more standardized in how you can produce this well. 


But yeah, I imagine just in the future, maybe wine is more natural. Instead of highlighting maybe like what vineyard or what brand, maybe the focus is on labeling the type of soil that it's in or something else. So I thought that was really interesting.


Raakhee: Yeah, totally. So I haven't ever tasted even like years back a natural wine. So I'm so curious. And then I know you said, it don't taste so great. So that's really interesting. 

But I think, I mean, thinking back to history again, right, and alcohol having such like tracing right back, every society and culture has had them, right? It's just fermented fruit. It's taking grapes, it's letting them age and ferment, right? It's just a question of how do we make it like the healthiest, right? 


And to me, I'm like, okay, let's not add sugar. Let's add something else, right, to maybe sweeten it up like add dates, like add dates to it in the fermentation process, right? And then yeah, if there's no pesticides. I mean, I can't imagine that's bad then, right? That would probably be good, right, without chemicals and it's a natural sort of drink. 


And is that how, you know, prehistoric ancestors? I don't know, is that what they were doing? And it was fine. We just move away from the essence of it. And it's just getting us back to it.

So I think that's really interesting. And I will share that like the one thing that I do have is I have the, you get apple cider juice, right? Which is just like, yeah, it's fermented and carbonized and nothing else added. It's just apple juice. But that's my, that's my champagne. So there we go. I really think there's something in that. So really interesting.


Yeah, okay. I, and I was, yeah, I suspected, okay, both of you might have signals right in the sphere of this. I went a little bit outside, but you'll see how it all converges and makes sense.


[12:04 Rethinking Nightlife: New Social Spaces and Activities]


Raakhee: So my signal is the rise of “night mayors.” And at first glance, this might seem a little unrelated, right, but a pattern really much, right? 


So Amsterdam became the first city to formally appoint a Night Mayor. It was either in 2012 or 2014, really establishing kind of systems, roles and rules to how do you govern a city after dark and the fact that we should be governing a city after dark as well, right? And pretty soon after New York City followed and right now it's claimed or estimated that there's about 18 Night Mayors globally. This is just in a decade, right? That's the extent to which the trend has kind of taken off.


So what happens if we don't drink? Nightlife changes, right? And you see this convergence, I think that may come, which is less bars or less sort of alcoholic bars. We'll see the rise of non-alcoholic bars, like this one called New Bar in San Francisco, and they sell drinks like the Phony Negroni. So, you know, yeah, you can get everything but alcohol at this bar. Yeah, you never have the sense though it's a bar. 


When that happens, right, there’s less violence, it's kind of safer because people are not intoxicated. And this is kind of merging with another trend, which is nightclubs on the decline, right? And, you know, this, I can imagine a lot of parents of teens breathing a sigh of relief, but there's a parallel happening, you know, of nightclub activity changing and nightclubs on the decline. I'd have to check the stat, but I think I read somewhere that, I think in 2024, about five nightclubs were closing per week in the UK, which has always been a kind of, you know, very much party, nightclub, nightlife destination. So really interesting.


And it makes me wonder about things that we've touched on before, right? But I was like, oh, well, museums could then open at night for longer hours, and all of those who are working during the day, we actually get to enjoy certain things we can't at night, right? And we kind of spoke about Dubai's beaches being open at night because of the climate in their case. 

So, you know, these new economies would need to emerge, would emerge, I think. So instead of maybe a nightclub, you could go for a dance class, like, which typically we either have to do in the weekday or we either have to do on the weekend. And this just opens up time really differently, I think. 


And I think with things like self-checkout and AI, I mean, I can imagine that stores would be able to, again, just stay open longer, right? You'd maybe need less people, and some of the rules there can change, especially if it feels like cities are getting safer. There's more people, there's more activity. The night kind of changes, you know?

And like I said, climate plays a role in this. We've seen it with, I think, Lana, it was your story, right, in Arizona, and not being able to go to the park because it was so hot. And then we saw the glow-in-the-dark playground, exactly. 


So it's like reimagining, like, this nightlife and what we could do with it. And I think the decline in alcohol supports that, right? Because it changes the nature of what we do at night and how we behave. And so it really brought up this thing around, can the average citizen kind of take back the night, you know? And, yeah, does less alcohol help promulgate a different, maybe even a more active nightlife, but in ways that we haven't really imagined until now? So, yeah, that was my signal.


[15:38 Public Safety, Loneliness, and What’s Next]


Lana: I love that. That is so, that's so provocative, and what a really, really great signal. I mean, but part of something that came to mind is, I think, something that Sue has brought up before, but how some cities are trying to regulate light pollution. And so they keep the city dark at night. So there's something there around, like, what are some of these effects if we have a more vibrant and different nightlife? But we also want to have safety, right? We also want to have, it needs to be well-lit because we don't have the sun.


There is something there around the night, the decline of nightclubs, and the loneliness epidemic, right? Like, these people are just not going out as much. They're not socializing as much as they used to. 


And so I love the idea of encouraging different types of activities where people can still socialize and be together, and it doesn't have to be revolving around alcohol or some of the things that maybe used to dominate nightlife. So that's really cool.


I think another thing that I had found that I thought was interesting—it's related to what you're saying, you know, things that used to be revolved around alcohol—so, for example, drunk driving, right? It's a huge, huge problem. 


The one recent innovation that has come up is marijuana breathalyzers. So it used to be that, I mean, I think it still is, this is just a thing, is like, for marijuana, it stays in the system for a long time. So they would have trouble implementing a breathalyzer because you couldn't tell if it was something that was, like, recent or if it was just like a holdover of substance that's still in your body.

And so now they're making advancements on that where you take the breathalyzer test and then you take it again, but, like, after like 30 minutes to an hour, and then they'll be able to tell if you have, like, reached a certain threshold of that in your system that would impair your ability to drive, for example. And so that's, to me, just reminding me that's like, you know, as our behavior shifts, like, these different technologies and stuff will also shift in the name of, you know, in this case, public safety.


Sue: Yeah, what you're talking about with the breathalyzer, I was thinking along the lines of substitution effect. Having gone through many Dry Januaries myself, I always wind up finding something else that'll take my attention, right? And so I just wondered, you know, if it's not alcohol, then what are these possible substitutions, and what are side effects as a result?


I mean, even just thinking about the loneliness epidemic, I mean, that might be one side effect of just people not being able to gather or not gathering in bars and things like that. Then what's the solution for that, right? Like, are they going to produce these drinks that also now say, oh, this can help with your mental health? Who knows, right? But there's always an opportunity of whatever is going to happen after this.


Like, I was thinking, one interesting thing is, you know, with wine, in the production process, there are many times, like, Raakhee, you're talking about the added sugar, you know, they add sulfites, they add different components in it. So if it turns out that some of the cannabis or some other herbal supplements or something else becomes really interesting, I haven't looked it up, I don't know if it exists already, but are there basically blends now where, in wine, you're now getting a mix of some of these things too? Yeah, I was just really curious about that. 


But yeah, maybe in the future, you're just going to see a lot more blending of these different worlds as one industry is trying to survive and the other one is really taking off.


Raakhee: Yeah, yeah, I think, I think it's exactly that that's so interesting. So I think it's like convergence, right, is the word here. It's Lana, like, you were speaking about the marijuana test, and I was like, yeah, but that would be an interim thing as well because I feel like, but what if self-driving does come really soon? And it's like, game over, right?


But yeah, Sue, I mean, yeah, definitely right about the substitution effect though, right? Especially if something's always, like I said, has been part of our culture for so long, it's so, it's so interesting. How do you replace that? 


And, you know, I think we can all attest to this—some people you can only be around when you're drinking. All right, so it's like, okay, I'll have to be high now.


I think it's funny. I think, yeah, I think it's going to be interesting to see. I'm really excited. I'm excited to see if there’s some drinks I can try now. So I’m going to go and have a look in the supermarket. I think we should all do that as homework—like, go into the aisles and see what's out there, you know? And yeah, I think, yeah, I think we'll be surprised at what’s, what's, what's so different. What are the ingredients in these drinks?


So yeah, I think, you know, is there anything else either of you want to add for today?


Lana: No, yeah, I share your optimism. And I think, you know, especially, like, alcoholism is a disease, the fact that there is this sort of growing acceptance of a more, like, sober, sober-curious lifestyle, there are these alternative products, I think that’s all really positive, you know, development for, you know, people who are really struggling. And so I think this is, it’ll be really interesting to see, as you mentioned, kind of the different consequences, right, the different ripple effects as this continues.


Raakhee: Yeah, yeah, beautifully, beautifully summated, I think, for us, Lana, there. Thank you.

So, yeah, I hope you enjoyed, you know, this week’s episode. We’d love to hear if you’ve done Dry January and what the experience has been for you. Have you found any interesting products? Please let us know. And you can find us at horizonshiftlab.com. And we will see you again next week with a whole new theme, delving into all new kinds of signals. So we will catch you then. Bye for now.

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